Why Israel Is Attacking Syria
Tel Aviv is exploiting tensions between Damascus and Syrian minorities to ensure Syria's new government remains in chaos
I wanted to write this week’s Vantage Points about something other than the Middle East, but this morning I awoke to shocking news.
Israel has launched an all out aerial assault on yet another Middle Eastern capital.
This time it’s Damascus, Syria, where after weeks of talks many thought would lead to a normalization deal between Israel and Ahmed al-Sharaa’s new, fragile Syrian government of former jihadists, Israel bombed major military and political targets on Wednesday morning, including around the Presidential Palace. A member of the Israeli government has called for the western backed al-Sharaa to be “eliminated.” The dramatic decision to strike at the heart of the young al-Sharaa regime represented a shocking turn in relations between the two countries, who seemed to be reconciling after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government, a critical node in the Iranian “axis of resistance.”
Observers are asking three major questions watching these events unfold. How did we get here? How will the conflict be resolved? And perhaps most consequentially, what does this mean for the future of the region?
The first question is complex. Southern Syria is one of the most ethnically diverse—and politically divergent—parts of the country. It was Dar’a, one of the southern provinces, that gave birth to the Syrian revolution in 2011.
Suwayda, which neighbors Dar’a in the south, is a stronghold of the Druze community. The Druze are an ethnoreligious minority community with an Abrahamic theology that incorporates various beliefs familiar to followers of most major religions. Most of the Syrian Druze population is based in Suwayda, but there’s also a significant chunk in the Golan Heights, a region of Syria that’s been partially occupied by Israel since 1967. While some Druze living in Galilee, northern Israel, have integrated into Israeli society, accepted Israeli citizenship and served in the Israeli military, a vast majority living in the more recently occupied Golan have rejected Israeli citizenship, still identifying as Syrians. Needless to say, Israel has a complicated relationship with the Druze.
During the Assad regime, the Druze of Suwayda and the Golan were largely left alone. Assad, of the religious minority Alawites, knew respecting other Syrian minorities was key to maintaining his hold on power. While the Druze certainly didn’t trust Assad, they were allowed to operate semi-autonomously in Suwayda, protecting themselves with their own heavily armed militias, and staying largely out of the bruising civil war.
The only Druze involvement in the fighting came in July 2018, when their militias rushed to fend off an assault on Suwayda from the Islamic State terror group and in 2015, when al-Nusra front fighters murdered 20 Druze villagers in the northwestern Idlib province.
The leader of the al-Nusra front at the time? Abu Mohammad al-Julani, known today as Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s current leader.
Given their bloody history, it’s no surprise Druze leaders in Syria—particularly Suwayda—have emerged as chief critics of their new government. None more so than Sheikh Hikmet al-Hijri, a leading Suwayda based Druze militia and spiritual leader. Hijri has slammed the government since day one for refusing to honor promises to include Druze representatives in the drafting of Syria’s new constitution. Meanwhile, al-Sharaa’s goal is to establish unified control of his country, which would mean the Druze of Suwayda giving up the autonomy they’ve enjoyed under Assad—especially their well armed militias. Druze leaders have consistently said laying down their arms, especially in the current climate, is a nonstarter.
Druze and government forces have engaged in minor but deadly clashes throughout the first months of the al-Sharaa government, including but not limited to massacres of Druze by forces claiming Defense Ministry affiliation in southern Damascus this past April. But the origins of the recent violence stem from another unrelated incident.
According to reports, Wednesday’s events have their roots in the July 11th kidnapping of a Druze trader on the road to Damascus by an armed Bedouin gang. Bedouin is an umbrella term for groups of nomadic tribes that exist throughout the Arab world, but in Syria, many are situated in the same part of the country as the Druze. Bedouins and the Druze have a longstanding rivalry based on land disputes, so the kidnapping quickly escalated into consistent fighting between the armed militias of the two groups.
This brought in the Syrian government, quick to want to impose its authority and squash sectarian violence, while degrading Druze autonomy. While many Druze initially welcomed the government to Suwayda as a means of restoring the peace, Druze militiamen saw the government’s actions as a threat to Druze autonomy and clashes soon began. The Syrian military was brutal, summarily executing 21 civilians, according to a human rights group. These reports of brutality by the Syrian military, which have been acknowledged as “criminal and disgraceful” by the country’s Interior Ministry, provided the perfect justification for Israel to attack.
Hijri, the prominent Druze spiritual leader, called for international protection for his people against the Syrian government in the wake of the government attacks, something many on the ground interpreted as a call for direct Israeli intervention. However, according to media reports, the view that Israeli protection of the Druze against the Syrian government is needed is not widely shared, even inside Suwayda. Nevertheless, Israel seemed to take Hijri’s cue in their devastating strikes throughout Syria on Wednesday morning.
The Israeli strikes were meant to ensure that another one of Israel’s neighbors remains weak and without a functioning central government. They targeted Syrian military forces in Suwayda, and the defense ministry and presidential palace in Damascus and were meant to squander the attempts of the new Syrian government to unite the country under one security umbrella. The strikes were meant to ensure Damascus remains unable to control various well armed separatist ethnic militias, including the Kurds in the north, Alawites in the west, and of course, the Druze in the south, ensuring Syria remains in chaos.
The Israeli government has launched hundreds of attacks on Syria since Assad fell. In public, Israeli officials say that they’re threatened by the jihadist character of the Syrian government, they need a demilitarized area next to their border with Syria, and that they seek to protect the Druze in light of the significant Israeli Druze population. But given the al-Sharaa government’s clear attempts at reconciliation, even normalization with Israel, the aforementioned complex relationship between Israel and the Syrian Druze, and Israel’s recent history of aggression throughout the region, it seems the real reason for Israeli intervention is based in a realpolitik desire to be the only stable country in a region with a functioning central government.
Of course, the central government Israel is now trying to destroy for its own geostrategic interests is backed by the same benefactor as Israel: the United States. This may play a big role in the conflict’s resolution. The United States lifted sanctions on al-Sharaa just months ago, with the aim of “giving Syria a chance” to succeed. A military they also paid for, the Israelis, trying to destroy that chance was something the US seemed unwilling to tolerate for long. However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio seemed unwilling to criticize Israel for the move, calling it a misunderstanding and saying he expected a resolution would soon be worked out between all parties.
At present, it seems he’s right. Despite the symbolically damaging but limited Israeli strikes on Damascus Wednesday morning, it seems the Syrian military, in a brutal process leading to the deaths of numerous civilians, has secured control of Suwayda and is withdrawing and handing control over to the state police. Damascus and Druze leader Sheikh Yousef Jarbou reached a tentative ceasefire Wednesday afternoon that ended the violence and integrated Suwayda into the Syrian central state structure.
However, that’s unlikely to quiet still strong Druze resistance groups, or Israel. Wednesday evening, they reportedly struck government forces in the western Latakia province, home to the Alawite religious minority that’s clashed repeatedly with the al-Sharaa government since Assad’s fall. Defense Minister Israel Katz has promised further Israeli strikes until the government completely withdraws from the area. As for the Druze, Hijri has claimed the ceasefire agreement with Damascus was imposed by foreign pressure, despite other Druze leaders agreeing to the ceasefire secured by Jarbou. In short, the current peace between Damascus and Syrian minorities is incredibly fragile, and Israel seems intent on exploiting the tension between the two to cause chaos in Syria for its own geostrategic gain.
How these events impact the future is very much dependent on the US. The Israeli strikes make clear that US support for Israel is inhibiting the accomplishment of other goals it has in the region— in this case, the stabilization of Syria. It makes perfect sense to fear for the rights and safety of the Druze as they negotiate their entrance into the new Syrian state fabric. But recent events make it clear that Israel is acting only to inflame tensions in Syria for its own benefit in a way that could hurt all involved including the very Druze Israel says it wants to protect. Will America use its significant leverage to keep Israel out of Syria and give it the “chance to succeed" Trump proclaims to want? Only time will tell. If the answer is no, it will serve as another green light for Israel to pursue its wildest ambitions, meaning more pain and suffering for civilians throughout the Middle East.