How Zohran Mamdani Shocked The World

A look at how Mamdani won, and what it means for the future of American politics.

Two nights ago, New York State Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani set off a political earthquake with a resounding win over former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the New York City Democratic Mayoral Primary. The victory was stunning, and at a scale not even his top supporters expected. In February, he was polling at 1 percent in the first round of the city’s ranked choice primary, per Emerson. At the moment, he’s gotten 43.5% of the first round vote. Only one Mamdani sponsored poll, which was widely mocked at the time of its June 7th release, had Mamdani up in the first round. He’s currently leading round one by 7%, with ranked choice tabulation due by next Tuesday.

Now that everyone’s gotten their takes in, I may as well register mine. I had my insta-reaction YouTube video, but I know, I’m late. There have been approximately 3,000 articles written about the race, by everyone from the Guardian to this German Jewish newspaper criticizing Zohran for his support of BDS. Everyone–mostly people who found out who he was at best two weeks ago—is weighing in self importantly on how Mamdani’s stunning win confirms every one of their moderate priors, trying to take his shine for themselves. Or, if they’re slightly more right wing, they’re calling on Jewish New Yorkers to evacuate the city, and acting like his left wing policies make Zohran the modern equivalent of Joseph Stalin.

If you want honest analysis from someone who’s followed Zohran’s campaign from the jump, and remembers when he actually reached out to NYC’s sizable chunk of AOC/Trump voters after the last election or when he led an incredible 15 day hunger strike to secure millions in debt relief for yellow cab drivers, you’ve come to the right place. Here’s why, from someone who canvassed for him and witnessed how New Yorkers from all walks of life responded to his message, Zohran pulled off one of the most remarkable upsets in recent political history.

The development of the campaign came in several distinct phases. First, talking to people. Understanding what their problems were, and why after November, they were turned off from the Democratic Party— like how he spoke with those AOC/Trump voters. Then, based on those conversations, they developed a message with a “relentless focus on economics,” that promised New Yorkers, ¼ of whom live in poverty, that the campaign would take major but deliverable actions to remedy a brutal cost of living crisis. Then and only then, with their message firmly solidified, could they focus marketing the policies with creative and charming videos which, critically, always focused on three major, now iconic policies—childcare, buses, and freezing the rent.

With their early marketing, Zohran’s team built the backbone of the campaign, the people who made up the bulk of Zohran’s army of 50,000 volunteers: downwardly mobile, college educated, predominantly white younger voters in what the incredible Michael Lange calls the “commie corridor” of Queens and Brooklyn neighborhoods along the East River waterfront. Incredible turnout in this area of the city, which was always sure to be strong for Mamdani would always be essential to his victory. Consistently, Zohran beat expectations in these quarters, both in turnout and margin of victory versus Cuomo.

But what made Zohran’s campaign so different from many other left wing campaigns that failed to meaningfully advance beyond their oft-derided hipster base was his performance in what Lange called gentrifying battlegrounds. In areas like Upper Manhattan and central Brooklyn, those aforementioned downwardly mobile college educated voters live alongside, and some would say gentrify, communities traditionally made up of Black and Latino voters. But the crazy thing is, in many cases, the gentrifiers and significant chunks of the gentrified voted for the same guy: Zohran.

Take East Harlem, an area that’s 76% Black and Latino, as an example. Mamdani won 43% of the votes in that Assembly District, compared to 36% for Cuomo on increased turnout. Examples like this, in places like Bushwick, Cypress Hills and Bedford-Stuyvesant, can be found all over the city. Contrary to all conventional wisdom about Black skepticism of the left, Zohran’s best youth demographic was Black voters. More broadly, Cuomo won majority Black precincts by only 18%, when Zohran’s best poll had him losing the Black vote by 24%. The campaign also saw a critical increase in Latino support through effective outreach to elected officials like AOC, Puerto Rican icon Rep. Nydia Velazquez, and a partnership with Councilwoman Carmen De La Rosa, who represents the Latino parts of Upper Manhattan Zohran won handily.

This combination of increased turnout and increased buy-in from nonwhite voters seemed like an impossible dream of socialists for years, until Zohran achieved it Tuesday night. As a canvasser, the single most common knock against Zohran I heard, particularly from Black voters, was something along the lines of: “these politicians and their false promises, they’re all the same!” These results represent the incredible amount of trust that Zohran earned, the beginning of a hope that, after years of betrayal by mostly Democratic politicians, nonwhite voters of all backgrounds could vote for someone who has the vision and the integrity to genuinely improve their quality of life. It’s an incredible testament to the strength of the messaging, messenger and message of the Mamdani campaign and a roadmap for socialists seeking to build multiracial working class coalitions in the years to come.

Another critical factor in Mamdani’s win: huge turnout from Asians and African immigrant communities in the outer boroughs. While Mamdani being the first South Asian Muslim mayoral candidate undoubtedly helped him somewhat, many of the voters Mamdani talked to in the Queens segment of his AOC/Trump video were South Asian, and all of them brought up either cost of living or the Gaza genocide. Mamdani’s cost of living campaign, unbending principled stance for Palestinian human rights and expert, multilingual outreach led to massive surges in turnout and margin of victory in South Asian neighborhoods including Hillside Ave, one of the places he stood in the video. Zohran also outperformed with East Asian voters, thanks in large part to dedicated outreach to influential State Senator John Liu, whose endorsement undoubtedly helped surge support for Zohran in 67% Asian Flushing, Elmhurst, and Chinatown in Lower Manhattan. A canvassing and advertising strategy that met voters where they were and shared a message that resonated widely, and relentless outreach to influential community leaders, were critical elements of Mamdani’s success with Asian voters.

Major numbers of progressive minded, wealthier white voters in Lower Manhattan and Morningside Heights also supported Zohran in the first round. Some of this undoubtedly comes from real disgust with Cuomo and feckless direction of the Democratic Party more broadly in the face of Trump 2.0, but it’s also a real testament to the universal nature of Mamdani’s left wing message. Ensuring competent, clean government and the affordability of basic New York commodities from rent to groceries to halal food was something even wealthier New Yorkers could resonate with, especially when delivered confidently and unapologetically. A good deal more just liked his natural charm, which exuded from every video and interview. In the end, they asked themselves, could someone with a smile that wide really be an anti-Semitic communist? “No,” was the resounding answer for many.

In sum, Zohran truly listened to New Yorkers and developed a platform that called for real economic change, unapologetically backed it and effectively messaged it. His communications spread his attractive policies to the people most predisposed to them, engendering a volunteer army that hit the streets of New York City in record numbers. Those communications and that volunteer army convinced a multiracial coalition of the working class that they could look past years of betrayal in politics and trust that Zohran was different, and that by supporting him, they could actually make their lives better. Ironically, those same dynamics convinced wealthier Manhattanites that he was responsible yet radical enough to bring the policy and rhetorical jolt of change to the direction of the Democratic Party (and NYC) they felt was much needed— especially after Trump 2.0 and especially in contrast with Andrew Cuomo.

This victory sets a template and provides an opening for the left. A simple, unapologetic platform of economic justice, advocated for confidently, and a common sense pro-equality position on Israel is now a proven winning formula for Democrats–even against millions in Super PAC spending. It’s a message that begins to allow people who have tuned out of politics, that desperately need but never receive the help of politicians, to believe that they can change the circumstances of their lives through their vote. This mass revolution of civic engagement from the working class toward a more just future will only be supercharged if Zohran governs well and works hard to fulfill his promises, which will be another titanic challenge.

It’s important to remember a Zohran style victory is not something any old Democrat can pull off. Look for an increase in Zohranesque “relatable” videos in the coming year from House candidates promising policies of incomprehensible incrementalism, or going on and on about their hardscrabble working class background. Those videos will fall flat. As the midterms loom, everyone will try to be Zohran, but no one can be Zohran without being all of Zohran. The flashy, funny, viral videos mean nothing without simple, bold, deliverable and oft-repeated policies that actually address the cost of living crisis voters are facing across America. If future Democratic candidates can truly combine a real message with strong messaging, we’re in for a new age indeed.